Range vs Trend — read the regime first
A great setup in the wrong regime is just a bad trade with extra steps. Reading the market state correctly is more important than picking the perfect entry.
The two states
📉↔️📈 Range
Price oscillates between a definable high and low. Higher highs fail. Lower lows get bought. The midpoint is a magnet.
What works: fade the edges. Buy the bottom of the range, sell the top. Take small TPs.
What fails: breakout strategies. Most "breakouts" in a range are fake-outs that reverse.
🚀 Trend
Higher highs and higher lows (uptrend) — or lower highs and lower lows (downtrend). Each pullback gets bought. Momentum carries through resistance.
What works: buy dips in uptrends, sell rallies in downtrends. Hold for runners.
What fails: picking tops or bottoms. The trend can run far longer than you think.
How to spot the regime
- Price action: count swings on the 1H. HH+HL = uptrend. LH+LL = downtrend. Mixed = range.
- ADX indicator: ADX above 25 = trending. Below 20 = ranging.
- Bollinger band width: contracting = range building. Expanding = trend underway.
Why our bot reads regime first
Our master filter checks regime before picking which mode to fire. If we're in range, SNIPER and MOMENT modes are penalized. If we're trending, RANGE mode is penalized.
This single filter is why our regime-aligned signals run 60-70% WR versus the ~50% you'd get from blindly trading every setup.
The transition is the trap
Markets don't switch regime instantly. There's a few hours (or days) of mixed action between range and trend. That's where most retail loses money — fading what's about to break, or buying breakouts that fail.
Our bot stays out during those transitions. Quiet bot in chop = healthy bot.